How soon? The blood bath in the United States started in 1620! You late.
Or maybe you want to know when you will be directly and personally impacted or harmed by the violence needed to establish and sustain the United States. I can’t tell you that without knowing more about you. If you are a poor Black women then the blood is gonna run sooner than if you are a rich White male.
The US blood bath reaches different demographics at different stages in US political and economic history. Some don’t recognize the ongoing blood bath cuz they never been out of the bath, so the bath is their constant reality, it’s like the fish being the last creature to realize there’s a flood.
Blacks, Natives, (poor) Women have been soaking in the Blood bath since the founding of the US, ain’t never got a chance to get out the bath and dry off.
Now, a full-scale Civil War 2.0 is not likely because the White elites don’t fight it out like that anymore, they prefer proxy wars in the Third World over armed conflicts in the Developed Nations. In the US the elites (who are behind all wars) use currency, interest rate, and stock manipulation to fight their battles; along with hefty does of corporate media propaganda to get the masses to join one side of the fight over the other.
So, most of these rednecks will never get the chance to use all of those weapons they stockpiled in a glorious Racist Revolution like their ancestors did back in 1861.
Now, there will be riots, protest, skirmishes, mass shootings, hate crimes, lynchings, and other outburst, but there’s no evidence that there will be an all out Civil War coming to the states; not as a result of politics or racial tensions.
Not even wide spread economic collapse sparked Civil War, and the US has had economic depressions or downturns every 10 years or so since its first Civil War.
The genocidal rapist we call the Founding Fathers set up the nation to withstand and even encourage unrest, protest, and the occasional reactionary upraising of the unwashed masses, they learned a lot from the fall of the European Monarchs and didn’t want to repeat their errors, so don’t mistake ongoing demonstrations or protest for real social change or as a real threat to the Status Quo cuz most often they ain’t.
There is one thing that I see that will bring you total upraising and open conflict in the streets and that’s full system ecological calamities and collapse. That’s the one new factor that was not present in the 1600s, 1700s, 1800s, or 1900s.
Now, since the Whites invaded this land and brought millions of kidnapped Africans here, there have been local and regional ecological collapse all over the US; but they were always able to cope by spreading to new regions and stealing resources from other regions of the world; those options are drying up as the world gets warmer and warmer and the climate becomes more unstable.
Now, not only will there be widespread violence, population displacement, food and energy shortages, there will also be a total collapse in civil society, which means that there will be no official government to conduct, fund, or execute a war; like there was during the first Civil War. So, such a scenario would not really constitute a Civil War but a total society breakdown; you gotta do different preparation for societal breakdown then you gotta do for a Civil War.
Also, I’m not even factoring in other shit like China, Russia, multinational corporations, etc; cuz you didn’t really ask. But there are other factors that can accelerate the outcomes I’m talking about that I don’t have space to get into. Sorry.